‘It’s only going to get worse’: wildfires forcing firefighters to make impossible choices

# ‘It’s only going to get worse’: wildfires forcing firefighters to make impossible choices

**As the climate crisis fuels more intense blazes, pushing them to new parts of the world, those tackling them are forced to ration resources and decide which to fight**

Across the European continent, a new and brutal calculus is shaping the fireground. Firefighters, once trained to protect every home and hectare, are now being forced into what experts describe as "triage" decisions—choosing which communities to save and which to let burn. The shift, driven by climate-fueled megafires that overwhelm available resources, is prompting urgent questions about the future of wildfire management in Europe.

César Alcaraz had only just become a firefighter in the late 1990s when he found himself ambushed by a fast-moving blaze. Barely able to breathe and with no more water left in his truck, he and his colleagues fled an inferno ravaging Spain’s Montgó mountain region, wishing their bosses had sent more support. But nearly three decades on, as an officer with Alicante’s provincial firefighters, Alcaraz has more sympathy for the agonising choices that commanders have to make. When wildfires overwhelm an area, his job resembles that of a doctor in an emergency room with too few ventilators.

"Every day, we are making decisions that no firefighter should have to make," Alcaraz told the Europe News Desk. "We are deciding which houses to save, which forests to abandon. And it’s only going to get worse."

The data behind the crisis

The scale of the challenge is stark. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), the 2025 fire season saw more than 1.2 million hectares burned across the European Union—nearly double the 15-year average. Portugal, Spain, Greece, and Italy accounted for 78% of the total area burned. In Greece alone, more than 200,000 hectares were consumed, with fires reaching the outskirts of Athens for the first time in modern history.

Dr. Maria Papadopoulos, a wildfire risk analyst at the Joint Research Centre in Ispra, Italy, said the trend is accelerating. "What we are seeing is a fundamental shift in fire behavior. These fires are no longer seasonal events confined to the Mediterranean. They are occurring earlier in the year, burning with greater intensity, and spreading into areas that were previously considered low-risk, such as central France and Germany."

Papadopoulos’s research shows that extreme fire weather days—when temperatures exceed 40°C, humidity drops below 20%, and wind speeds rise above 30 km/h—have increased by 35% across southern Europe since 2000. "The window for safe firefighting is closing," she said. "When you have fires moving at 10 kilometers per hour, there is no time for a strategic response. It becomes a matter of evacuation and survival."

The impossible choices

The human cost of these decisions is mounting. In July 2025, a fire in the Evros region of northeastern Greece killed 28 people, including two firefighters who were trapped while trying to protect a village. A subsequent investigation revealed that the regional fire service had only 40% of the aerial assets it had requested for the season.

"It was a massacre," said retired Greek fire brigade commander Nikos Stavros, who now advises the European Commission on wildfire policy. "We had helicopters grounded for maintenance, crews exhausted from back-to-back deployments, and no backup from neighboring regions because they were all fighting their own fires. The system is broken."

Stavros emphasized that the problem is not unique to Greece. In Portugal, where 120 firefighters died between 2017 and 2024, the government has introduced a national firefighting force with dedicated aircraft and year-round crews. Yet even there, the 2025 season saw record losses. "You can throw all the planes and trucks you want at a firestorm," Stavros said. "But when the wind is blowing at 70 km/h and the humidity is 5%, you are not fighting the fire. You are running."

A changing climate, a changing threat

The connection between climate change and wildfire intensity is now beyond scientific doubt. A 2024 study published in *Nature* found that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of extreme fire weather in the Mediterranean by 40% compared to pre-industrial levels. The same study projected that by 2050, the area at risk of "extreme" fire behavior—defined as fires that cannot be controlled by direct attack—will expand by 50%.

Dr. Elena Rossi, a climatologist at the University of Barcelona, said the implications for firefighting strategy are profound. "We are moving from a model of suppression to one of adaptation. That means accepting that some fires will burn, and focusing resources on protecting lives and critical infrastructure, rather than trying to save every acre of forest."

Rossi pointed to California and Australia as models for how European agencies might adapt. Both regions have implemented "defensible space" zones around homes, mandatory evacuation orders, and pre-positioned strike teams for high-risk days. "Europe is 10 years behind," she said. "We are still fighting fires the way we did in the 1990s. That has to change."

The road ahead

As the 2026 fire season approaches, European fire services are bracing for another catastrophic year. The European Commission has pledged €1.5 billion for a new fleet of firefighting aircraft and a network of regional coordination centers. But many experts say that money alone is not enough.

"The problem is not just resources—it's mentality," said Alcaraz, the Alicante firefighter. "When I started, we thought we could stop every fire. Now we know that's a lie. The question is whether our politicians and our citizens are ready to accept that reality."

For more on this story, read the full investigation from The Guardian. For ongoing coverage of wildfire policy and climate adaptation, visit our World News section.